Potential Tropical Cyclone 15 Forms, Heading Towards the Leeward Islands

 which is poised to send surf to many locations over the coming days. However, residents in the already battered northeast Caribbean are fearfully monitoring the newly designated

, currently around 750 miles to their east-southeast. Environmental conditions look favorable for strengthening and the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center has the system, likely soon to be named Maria, impacting the Leeward Islands as a hurricane around next Tuesday.

For a region already knocked to its knees by the catastrophic damage from Irma, followed by a glancing blow from Jose, any surf that PTC 15 may generate for the region is of little solitude. We do expect another healthy dose of swell for the Eastern Caribbean with Barbados again looking like the standout locale as the system passes north of the island over the coming days.

The outlook for the middle part of next week and beyond is much more muddled. Much of the model guidance rather aggressively suggests the system will strengthen significantly by the middle of next week, potentially moving westward towards the Greater Antilles. A track through the northern islands obviously isn’t good for the region, but it also isn’t a favorable path for swell production either.

Longer range surf prospects, and the potential track and strength of PTC15 are uncertain at this point. The latest longer range guidance, however, does bring the system into the Western Atlantic which would provide more surf for the East Coast later next week and potentially beyond — right around the time the lasting swell from Jose might finally be winding down. Needless to say, the run of waves for the East Coast doesn’t look to end anytime soon, and nor do the potential threats from the tropics.

The positives…

– Potential for another good swell for Barbados and select other islands out of the path

– Possible long range surf prospects for the US East Coast

– Not yet a named system, can still hope for limited development to spare the ravaged Caribbean islands

And the negatives…

– Potential for significant storm impacts for the already battered Eastern Caribbean region, including the Leeward Islands, US and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico

– Watches already issued for some areas and warnings are possible in the coming days

– Long range uncertainty with the track and strength of the system

Surfline offers many forecasting tools for you to utilize but our written forecasts by our team of East Coast forecasters is our most valuable and useful tool. We pour over all the model runs and incorporate real-time observations and data to fine-tune our forecasts, delivered via the simple ‘colored boxes’ and discussions. Find the forecast for your area HERE to see how Jose and PTC15 swell is looking for your area.

For the latest, up-to-date storm observations, satellite imagery, and storm forecast go straight to the source at the National Hurricane Center.

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